ChatGPT’s Growth Is Stalling, and That’s a Real Problem for OpenAI’s IPO Plans

ChatGPT‘s rocket ship of growth is starting to run out of fuel. According to data from Sensor Tower, the app saw a 132% increase in uninstalls year-over-year in April. That’s bad enough, but March was even worse — a staggering 413% jump in uninstalls compared to the same month last year. The timing is suspicious: OpenAI announced its Pentagon deal in February, and users who are uncomfortable with military contracts have been voting with their thumbs ever since.

Now, before you say “but it’s still growing,” yes, the user base is technically still expanding. But the rate is dropping fast. Monthly active users grew 168% in January; by April, that number had fallen to 78%. That’s still impressive for most apps, but for a product that was practically a cultural phenomenon a year ago, it’s a clear signal that the hype is fading. People are trying alternatives, or just getting bored.

I’ve seen this pattern before with other “unicorn” apps. Once the novelty wears off, retention becomes a brutal game. ChatGPT’s core functionality hasn’t changed much — it’s still a text-based chatbot, albeit a very smart one. Meanwhile, competitors like Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and a dozen open-source models are catching up fast. Users don’t have much loyalty when the next cool chatbot is one download away.

The real worry here isn’t just user numbers — it’s the IPO narrative. OpenAI has been rumored to be eyeing a public offering, and investors love growth stories. A slowing user base and rising uninstalls are the opposite of what you want in your S-1. The Pentagon deal may have opened up government revenue, but it clearly alienated a chunk of the consumer base. That’s a trade-off, not a win.

I’m not saying ChatGPT is doomed. It still has a massive user base and the brand recognition that rivals envy. But if OpenAI wants to keep the IPO train rolling, it needs to figure out why people are leaving and fix it fast. Right now, the trend line is pointing in the wrong direction.